It is not clear why the County's Community Development Department and the Supervisors have not challenged the population numbers provided by ABAG when both the Department of Finance (DOF) report and the University of Southern California Sol Price School of Public Policy report demonstrate ABAG's population estimates are not representative of any data currently available that would accurately describe and provide planning for housing and transportation into the year 2040.
Here is a description of alternatives in the DraftEIR by Marin County Community Development Department. The original PDF is attached as a download as well.
"Five alternatives are presented in the Draft EIR to comparatively study impacts and outcomes of the proposed Plan as well as potential variations.
• Alternative 1 - No Project. This alternative assumes that the current growth pattern in the region would continue as is presently planned, with no significant change in transit investment strategy.
• Alternative 2- Plan Bay Area (the Project).
• Alternative 3 - Transit Priority. This alternative promotes the most intense growth in the inner-urban core of the region, particularly around San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose, corresponding to high-frequency transit service. Less growth is projected in Priority Development Areas.
• Alternative 4 - Enhanced Growth Network. This alternative is a hybrid of Plan Bay Area and the No Project alternative.
• Alternative 5 - Environment, Equity and Jobs. This scenario seeks to maximize affordable housing in high-opportunity urban and suburban areas through incentive and housing subsidies. Under this alternative, some growth is shifted to areas outside PDAs, in areas eligible to qualify for transit priority projects (TPPs).
There is no alternative that would significantly reduce the jobs and housing growth projections estimated for the region. Alternatives 1 (No Project) and 4 (Enhanced Growth Network) would not meet GHG reduction targets. Alternative 5 (Environment, Equity and Jobs) has been identified as the environmentally-superior alternative, although it is contingent upon the State enacting a Vehicle Miles Travel (VMT) tax to support needed transportation investments that seems unlikely for the time being. Alternative 5 also results in slightly higher VMT per capita (reducing per capita VMT is one of the principal targets of SB 375), higher congested VMTs for peak commutes and the fewest acres of important farmland. The proposed Plan (Alternative 2) resembles the Countywide Plan to the extent that both recommend a growth strategy that focuses, although not exclusively, future homes and businesses within the limited commercial and mixed use nodes (primarily PDAs as referred to in the proposed Plan) in the unincorporated county."
