Here is Bob Silvestri's letter to ABAG in response to the Draft EIR. I have included the link to the complete letter and the section under Conclusions and Final Comments.
It gives you yet another perspective on what exactly is wrong with the numbers produced by ABAG.
http://millvalley.patch.com/groups/bob-silvestris-blog/p/bp--the-bay-are...
The Bay Area Plan Fails to Solve Our Affordable Housing Needs In Marin County
Public comment on the Draft Bay Area Plan and the Draft Environmental Impact Report with regard to our actual housing needs in Marin County.
Posted by Bob Silvestri, May 11, 2013 at 02:05 pm
CONCLUSIONS:
"The Plan and the Plan Alternatives are not in compliance or conformance with many of the requirements of SB375 or the State Housing Element Law. Building more and more housing without commensurate jobs growth first, places and unsustainable financial burden on Marin County cities and unincorporated areas which can lead to potential bankruptcy for small cities (e.g. Vallejo, Modesto and San Bernadino).
The Plan ignores the local land use and social, economic and physical / natural constraints in Marin County and similar locations, as required under SB375. The Plan’s planning approach and skewed incentives toward large scaled TOD will contradict local efforts to promote the development of the types of affordable housing actually needed in Marin County and similar locations. If the goal of our housing laws is to provide adequate affordable housing opportunities for all income groups and particularly for those most in need (as defined in each particular location) then the Plan, as written, fails in every way to achieve that."
Examination of the Bay Area Plan and the DEIR shows that the Plan fails to satisfy the requirements of SB375 because it fails to prove that the Plan or any of the Alternatives will actually achieve the goals of providing a significant amount of housing and affordable housing for future demographic needs. The analysis presented by the Plan is neither feasible nor reasonable to achieve Marin’s future housing needs, and therefore fails to conform to the requirements of SB375 and state Housing Law.
The over-riding question is why have so many mandatory provisions of SB375 and the State Housing Law, and so many considerations for feasibility, local quality of life, land constraints, economic realities and actual housing needs, been summarily ignored in the Plan’s analysis and its proposals? In light of the comments and analysis noted herein, on what basis can the Plan justify its conclusions and proposals?"
FINAL COMMENTS:
"Although SB375 clearly separates its requirements from mandatory conformance by local governments in creating their general plans and making local land use decisions, there is a stark difference between what is technically required and the reality created by the nexus of Housing Element Law, SB375’s Sustainable Communities Strategy, the Plan, the RHNA quota process and the MTC / OBAG grant and transportation process. The Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) ("Transportation 2035" is the Bay Area's RTP and allocates funding to regional transportation) contains an internal consistency requirement. This consistency requirement impacts cities and counties because the “Metropolitan Planning Organization” (MPO – MTC and ABAG) only award funding to projects that are consistent with the “Sustainable Communities Strategy” (SCS).
Therefore, the incentive for cities to receive funding - or rather the threat of being denied funding - gives local governments a good reason to draft their general plans and zoning ordinances and land use regulations in ways that are consistent with the Plan and the SCS. Combine this with the fact that under the Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA), state law and the process of certification from HCD, a local government is required to amend its Housing Element and rezone its land in order to accommodate the quantity of housing it is assigned under the RHNA. So in effect local government is being required to implement major aspects of the SCS, whether or not they want to or it makes any economic sense or addresses their actual affordable housing needs, and thereby losing local control of their planning and zoning despite the provisions of SB375 that disclaim that responsibility.
With this being the case, the Plan’s strict conformance with all the provisions and requirements of SB375 and state Housing Law, as discussed in this comment, become even more critical.
As indicated in this comment letter, the Plan fails to conform to the requirements of SB375 in numerous areas, making its proposals and programs unsuitable for achieving the goals of that legislation for most ex-urban, suburban and rural communities impacted by the Plan in the Bay Area."
