Recent articles about the general trend of the real estate activity in and around Bay Area suggest a more active market with a tight inventory, eager buyers, multiple offers and signs of upward movement and recovery. Question is: what is happening in our backyard, the Novato Real Estate market?
I wrote an , right before the summer break; comparing market statistics to that of May 27, 2010; both using data from local Multiple Listing Services (BAREIS – Bay Area Real Estate Information Service).
Inventory in May, 2012 (253) dropped almost 27 percent compared to that of May, 2010 (344).
Similarly, I thought it will be interesting to compare the market as of May 14, 2012 to that of the market today, Aug. 22, 2012, right as school starts after a three-month summer break.
Looking at total number of units (251 in August vs 253 in May) and percentage of active vs under contract homes, the trend seem to stay stable for both single family residences and condos. However, watching actual movement of homes and familiar with almost all the homes on the market, different story can be told.
The strongest selling condos are ones that are priced under $300,000; great starter homes for both first time homeowners and investors. Well-priced, nicely maintained condos in that price range received multiple offers quickly, some more than 10 offers; this includes previously routinely avoided short sales. The red-hot demand is mostly due to the fact that instead of paying rent, prospective homebuyers can own a condo while investors enjoy positive cash flow at this price range. The competition can be fierce, with a few all-cash offers, with some 10–20 percent over asking price.
On the flip side, due to the higher number of rentals in certain complexes, some homeowners associations do not allow investors and other HOAs do not qualify for the low down payment Federal Housing Administration loans (for details, asking your mortgage broker and/or Realtor) which prevented prospective buyers with lower downpayment from buying condos in those complexes.
Also enjoying a strong seller's market are single family homes in $400,000 to $500,000 range, and up to middle and upper end of low $700,000s, depending on the location, square footage as well as the condition of the home. A few received multiple offers — same scenario as those of the lower-end condos.
In the three-month period, we closed 223 homes in Novato, which include 170 single-family homes and 53 condos.
Of the single family homes, nearly a third is under $500,000 with close to 18 percent in each of the $600,000, $700,000 and $800,000-$1M range. Just around 9 percent is over $1 million range.
Average prices in thousands of for sale vs sold homes in May, June and July are:
SFR For Sale Sold CONDO For Sale Sold May $865,000 $633,000 May $285,000 $249,000 June $846,000 $602,000 June $259,000 $268,000 July $876,000 $663,000 July $264,000 $274,000While we saw very few over $1 million homes sold in 2011, we see a much more active million dollar/luxury market this year. Marin Country Club, Rush Creek, Vineyard, Indian Valley, Heart of San Marin, Black Point and Green Point can all claim to be part of the over $1 million SOLD Club.
Four homes over $1.5 million sold during the three-month period. Two are located in Indian Valley, the other two are in Atherton. All are horse properties and near or over 5,000 square feet. There was a bank-owned, private-gated estate with a 5,000 square-foot main house on lot of more than six acres in Atherton. It had a detached au pair unit, three-car garage, tennis court and its own pond. It listed for $1.45 million, received five offers in just over a week and closed at $1.75 million within a month.
Yes, buyers from all over Bay Area, Southern Marin, Sonoma, other parts of California, other states, and foreigners are coming to Novato looking and buying!
I also included the following charts:
- Novato Days on Market / Median Price ($000's) of Sold Homes
- Novato vs. Marin County - Percent of Homes in Contract for the Past Year
- Novato vs Marin County Average Selling Price Comparison for the Past 10 Years
Word of Caution – Numbers, although telling, do not tell everything. Reasons for whether a home sells quickly or not can be extremely complicated — even though this is data from Novato, it does not compare similar homes due to price changes (as market dropped, homes with similar prices are, in general, nicer or bigger homes than two years ago); some are short sales and stay on market or pending longer. Smaller numbers can also skew the results. Novato also has what I called macro areas that respond differently from each other. So, be very cautious when interpreting the numbers and comparing properties.
For specific questions about a certain house, Novato or Marin real estate market trend, please call your trusted Realtor; and of course, I will be happy to help, also.
Novato Real Estate Market
as of 08/21/2012
Total
Units
Total
Active
Total
In Escrow
%
Active
%
In
Escrow
SOLD
05/14-
08/21
05/14
vs
08/21
Type
SFDs
183
79
104
43%
57%
S
170
2%
CIDs
68
18
50
26%
74%
S
53
-2%
All SFDs and CIDs
251
97
154
39%
61%
S
224
0%
SFD by Price Range
$0-$500K
49
10
39
20%
80%
S
54
9%
$500,001-$600K
27
9
18
33%
67%
S
29
-3%
$600,001-$700K
27
12
15
44%
56%
S
31
-15%
$700,001-$800K
25
12
13
48%
52%
S
27
4%
$800,001- $999,999
26
13
13
50%
50%
S
14
34%
$1M – $1.25M
12
10
2
83%
17%
B
8
-16%
$1.25M – $1.5M
6
4
2
67%
33%
N
3
8%
$1.5M+
11
9
2
82%
18%
B
4
6%
TOTAL SFDs
183
79
104
43%
57%
S
170
2%
% in Contract
Type of Market
< 25%
Buyers
25% – 40%
Neutral
> 40%
Sellers
(*) S/B - % in Contract: < 25% - Buyers' Market; 25%-40% Neutral; >40% Sellers' Market
(**) 08/21/12 vs 05/14/12 – Differences in % in Contract between 05/14/2012 (Beginning of Summer) and 08/21/2012 (End of Summer)
NOVATO MARKET, as of 05/14/2012
In Escrow
Total Units
Total Active
Total In Escrow
% Active
% In Escrow
(*)2012 vs
2010
(**)
SFDs
195
84
101
43%
57%
S
19%+
CIDs
68
16
52
24%
76%
S
23%+
All SFDs/CIDs
253
100
153
40%
60%
S
18%+
SFD by Price Range
$0-$500K
64
15
48
23%
77%
S
19%+
$500,001-$600K
27
9
18
33%
67%
S
25%+
$600,001-$700K
31
9
22
29%
71%
S
29%+
$700,001-$800K
26
13
13
50%
50%
S
3%-
$800,001-$999,999
19
15
4
79%
21%
B
2%
$1M – $1.25M
13
9
4
69%
31%
N
16%+
$1.25M – $1.5M
8
6
2
75%
25%
B
7%+
$1.5M+
7
7
0
100%
0%
B
15%-
TOTAL SFDs
194
83
111
43%
57%
S
18%+
% in Contract
Market
< 25%
Buyers
25% – 40%
Neutral
> 40%
Sellers
(*) % in Contract: < 25% - Buyers' Market; 25%-40% Neutral; >40% Sellers' Market
(**) 2012 vs 2010 - Differences between 2012 and 2010 in % in Contract
(***) - Data collected from the local Multiple Listing Services (BAREIS – Bay Area Real Estate Information Service).
