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Have a Look at the City's Housing and Jobs Projections

Community Development Agency shared fresh estimates on how Novato will grow through 2040 during a supervisors' meeting.

Anybody paying close attention to mandated housing needs in Novato might want to check out the attached document being circulated by Marin County officials. There are some interesting predictions about how this city will change in the next 30 years.

At the March 20 meeting of the Marin County Board of Supervisors, the Community Development Agency presented an assessment of the Association of Bay Area Governments' Draft Jobs-Housing Connection Scenario and Draft Regional Housing Needs Allocation (what people commonly refer to as RHNA or "reena numbers"). Both processes relate to state legislative mandates to plan for growth in the Bay Area in a sustainable and equitable manner.

Supervisors Judy Arnold and Steve Kinsey, who represent Novato residents on the board, requested the update. Novato went through a traumatic housing debate in 2010-11 because of its general plan update requires the pinpointing of properties that could be future locations for housing sites, including some low-income, high-density units. Hundreds of residents spoke out against zoning for such housing developments in their neighborhoods.

The Jobs-Housing Connection is the latest strategy from ABAG and the Metropolitan Transportation Commission to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The scenario shows the Bay Area adding 700,000 households and 1.1 million jobs by 2040. In Marin, the projection is 11,000 new households, including 890 in Novato. ABAG estimates Novato will have 3,390 new jobs in that time span.

Marin has the lowest job and housing growth forecasts in the Bay Area, but households in the county are expected to increase by 11 percent over 2010 levels over the next 30 years.

While ABAG reduced some growth estimates in this latest scenario, projected job growth for Marin may still be overly ambitious, county officials said. The supervisors agreed that the projections of housing, populations and economics are problematic and in flux, and requested that staff prepare a letter to ABAG calling for an independent peer review of regional jobs projections, and possibly include a local jobs analysis to support staff’s comments.

Do you think the numbers will pan out? Share a comment below.

Bob Ratto March 27, 2012 at 12:27 AM
"The Jobs-Housing Connection is the latest strategy from ABAG and the Metropolitan Transportation Commission to reduce greenhouse gas emissions."....I know a better "S" word to replace strategy in the above quote, and it would be "scheme"...as to ABAG's numbers having any connection to, or basis in, reality, well they simply don't...all the numbers that came out are simply a new bureaucratic "whack a mole" game....say yes (always) to citizen control, this is our community, not that of the building industry/ABAG/SB375/phony GHG reduction...Steinberg (author of SB375) is totally beholden to building trades, and his latest little trick is something called SB1220, which states it will provide housing by requiring a $75 fee for all real estate documents...it is simply not true, it would apply to much, much more, such as UCC filings (many are filed daily), and other documents. It will be effective at driving businesses out of state. Study it.
Paula March 27, 2012 at 01:41 AM
Marin opponents of state housing mandates join forces, seek political allies http://www.marinij.com/larkspurcortemadera/ci_20260455/marin-opponents-state-housing-mandates-join-forces-seek
Michael Reyff March 27, 2012 at 04:42 AM
Lets be candid about SB375! SB 375 is a the greatest legeslative fraud ever pertetrated on citizens of the State of California. This bill was specifically designed to harness control of the economy and the citizens of the State of California by bunch of elitist utopian control freak bureacrats plain and simple.The only GHGs I am worried about are those that are emitting from Sacramento aka The Kremlin. This bill is blatantly unconstitutional and should be overturned by a rational court of law and in the mean ignored. BTW One major volcanic eruption will produce more dangerous gases etc than decades of man made produced gases. Go talk to the Europeans about what the recent Icelandic volcanic eruption did to the atmosphere and economy as an example.
Pam Drew March 27, 2012 at 03:07 PM
The biggest problem with ABAG is that they answer to no one. No heads roll if a campaign like PlanBayArea or OneBayArea becomes "a train wreck"-- Steve Kinsey's description. They can usurp huge amounts of money for moving their headquarters to SF and it takes an act of the legislature to stop it. The same 10 or 12 faces keep reconfiguring as heads and primary staff of myriad committees. They have unlimited funds for propaganda and a cadre of well disciplined "non-profits" who use their power to give the illusion of widespread support through the same system that bought votes in exchange for cash, jobs, and beer in the 19th century. The banks support "public-private partnerships" which amount to first class "seats at the table". No one in any way associated with the sprawling empire seems to ever fly coach.
Tina McMillan March 27, 2012 at 04:27 PM
http://www.scanph.org/files/Fact%20Sheet.pdf http://www.staor.org/c-a-r-opposes-sb1220-transfer-tax-for-affordable-housing/ "Over the last several decades, state and local agencies and organization have created affordable housing programs. Historically, state and local affordable housing programs have been funded through state bonds such as Prop 1C and Prop 46, or through local redevelopment agencies, among other sources. The funds generated from these bond measures have been exhausted, and local redevelopment agencies no longer exist. It is unlikely that future bonds will be viewed favorably by California voters given the current state of government finances and public’s concern over fiscal accountability. Therefore affordable housing groups have been seeking a permanent funding source for these programs and have unfortunately settled on SB 1220. SB 1220 creates a $75 per document transfer tax to create a housing trust fund that will support affordable housing for low and moderate income households including emergency shelters, transitional and permanent rental housing, foreclosure mitigation and homeownership opportunities."
Tina McMillan March 27, 2012 at 04:31 PM
continued "C.A.R. is opposing SB 1220 because: •SB 1220 targets (homebuyers) to pay for affordable housing which is an issue of broad social concern. While there may be a need for affordable housing funds, it is unfair to require only those individuals recording real estate documents to be the sources of that funding. The lack of sufficient affordable housing is a statewide concern. As such, if it is deemed necessary to implement some type of funding mechanism to generate funds for affordable housing, that mechanism should be as broad based as possible. It is simply unfair that SB 1220 seeks to fund affordable housing at the expense of home buyers. An affordable housing advocate suggested that C.A.R. could support SB 1220 if the tax applied to ALL recordings and not just those pertaining to real estate. WRONG! The concern remains the same. Even if the tax were applied to all recordings, only a relatively small group of citizens, namely those recording real estate documents, would still be taxed for a program that should be supported by all Californians."
Tina McMillan March 27, 2012 at 04:31 PM
continued "•SB 1220 increases the already substantial cost of buying a home. Many cities already have local transfer taxes. SB 1220 creates an additional transfer tax of $225 on almost all real estate transactions, including refinances, adding to the already substantial fees and taxes already paid by homebuyers. Keep in mind that every $1,000 increase in the median price of a home disqualifies almost 20,000 California households from affording homes."
Al Dugan March 27, 2012 at 04:39 PM
Save Novato and Marin Are you tired of ABAG and the state of CA making local decisions on how to develop Novato and Marin it may get worse.  SB 1220 the Housing Opportunity and Market Stabilization Act is coming.  This bill creates a permanent $700 million subsidy for builders for affordable housing that the state and ABAG believe should be built.  If you want to help email savenovato@yahoo.com.
Brant March 27, 2012 at 05:37 PM
I see in SB1220 that the elimination of redevelopment agencies has cost affordable housing a $1Billion/yr subsidy! Perhaps that proves the law of unintended consequences. SB1220 and other legislation reflect California's population - that would be you and me. We send people to Sacramento to represent us - but this bill and the commentary above suggest that we are doing a poor job. We are selecting the wrong people. We The People can eliminate ABAG and all of the rest of the alphabet soup. We just need to select the right people to represent us. Until we do that, all is lost.

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