SMART: What They Say vs. What They Mean

For a long time the SMART board and its representatives have had a difficult time telling the public the truth about SMART's financial prospects.  

Consider just one claim (others to come in later blogs): "We will build the rail in phases."

Their purpose here is political. They want voters to think that sometime soon they will get more money from somewhere to "complete" the project promised the voters in 2008.  What they don't tell the public is that there is no money for this project down the road and there is unlikely to be UNLESS voters in Marin and Sonoma approve another tax hike, requiring a two-thirds supermajority to pass.

Everyone knows that is not going to happen any time soon.  But voters and taxpayers ought to be aware that the conditions that allowed them to pass Measure Q in 2008 are unlikely to occur, even years from now.

Their problem is and will be their finances.  SMART has never had the funds to build and operate the rail services promised.  They have less now.  Even if they only build half the project, they'll still need revenues to operate the trains and shuttles promised.   Based on analyses that I've done, it is very uncertain whether the revenues will be there to provide those services with the key revenue shortage coming from sales tax revenues that will be less than projected. 

And therein lies the rub.  If SMART is ever constructed, their future financial prospects are dim.  If the sales tax is not repealed, they will have to finance both debt and operating deficits associated with providing rail service with actual sales tax revenues.  And they will have to balance future budgets.   And to do that, they'll have to raise fares and cut services for the simple reason that they must balance their budgets, just like other transit agencies do.

Under these circumstances, will they be able to convince voters to throw more money down the SMART drain? 

I doubt it.