Incumbents Reign Supreme in Novato City Election

Posted 2am Wednesday

It was the reign of the incumbents Tuesday as current members of the City Council, Novato Unified School District board and Fire Protection District successfully fought off all challengers to their seats.

In the council race, Mayor Pat Eklund grabbed 36 percent of the total vote, a full 7 percentage points ahead of Councilwoman Denise Athas. Challenger Steve Jordan, who had campaigned on a platform of bringing change to what he described as “Novato’s politics as usual” made a strong showing, obtaining 24 percent of the vote.

Community activist Eleanor Sluis received 12 percent of the vote.

The results are based on all precincts reporting, although it take several more days before the results are finalized by the Marin County Registrar of Voters.

See the complete results here

In the fire district race, former Novato firefighter Kevin Johnston pulled ahead early and stayed there, helped by his name credibility and experience inside the agency. 

Incumbent Brad Beedle was neck to neck with challenger Gary Butler, up to the last hours of the race. Butler owns a State Farm insurance agency in Novato and had made closer fiscal oversight of the agency’s budget a centerpiece of his campaign.

But in the end, Beedle, who has been on the district board for more than a decade, managed to pull ahead by about 200 votes, getting 28 percent of the vote to Butler’s 26 percent.

On the Novato school board, incumbents Shelly Scott, Derek Knell and Maria Aguila defended their positions against challenger Miguel Garza, who picked up 17 percent of the vote.

The findings are not surprising, given that the odds favor the incumbent in races large and small, according to many studies. It’s known as “the incumbent advantage” and has been seen time and time again in American politics. That’s because incumbents have name recognition, know how to fundraise and are much more likely to be part of a well-oiled political machine that keeps chugging right into the next election.

And even when public sentiment appears to be ready for a changing of the guard, the anger often doesn’t translate into votes for one simple reason: people fail to show up at the polls, researchers have found.

In this year’s election, only 24 percent of all registered Novato voters (or about 7,000 people) bothered to vote in person or via absentee ballot.

Are you surprised/happy/upset at the election results? Share your thoughts in the comments below.