The Real Growth Number for Marin and Affordable Housing

The issue is not if affordable housing should be built, but rather the ABAG allocation of housing is flawed for Marin. The real issue is how much affordable housing does Marin need.

The flaw in the ABAG projection is clearly apparent comparing the number of housing units in the 2007-2014 Marin Housing Element to the latest population projections by CA Department of Finance Demographic Research Unit.

The Demographic Research Unit is designated as the single official source of demographic data for state planning and budgeting. Why would ABAG not use these numbers when all other CA state agencies use them?

ABAG has allocated 4,882 affordable housing units to Marin for the 2007-2014 Housing Element. Based on the average household size in Marin of 2.34 people ( per the 2010 census report for Marin) this is enough affordable housing for 11,424 people.

The CA Department of Finance Demographic Research Unit projects the total population for Marin from 2010 to 2020 will decline by 1,370 people. Thus the affordable housing alone in the current 7 year housing element is enough housing for 12,794 more people than projected in Marin in the next 20 years in Marin.

The website links for the reference data are below. http://www.abag.ca.gov/planning/pdfs/SFHousingNeedsPlan.pdf

http://www.dof.ca.gov/research/demographic/reports/projections/P-1/documents/P-1_County_CAProj_2010-2060_5-Year.xls