Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) new numbers don't make sense for Marin or Novato

The Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) released their latest projections for Marin and they are absurd. ABAG is projecting population growth of 33,000 as of 2040. This is radically different than the projections by the CA Department of Finance Demographic Research Unit.

The Demographic Research Unit is designated as the SINGLE OFFICIAL SOURCE of demographic data for state planning and budgeting. The CA Department of Finance Demographic Research Unit projects the total population for Marin from 2010 to 2020 will decline by 1,370 people, with a projection of a growth of 6,818 or 2.7 percent from 2010 to 2040. ABAG says this unit, that is designated the single source of demographic data for the state of California, is incorrect. Really?

The ABAG projection, used to decide affordable housing allocations, are 484 percent HIGHER then the California Department of Finance Demographic Research Unit. How does ABAG explain this outrageous variance? The difference per ABAG is projected jobs 18,400, that of course don't exist and in no way reflect past job growth in Marin.

ABAG 's other reason is excluding growth in the late 1990' s and including the down turns that have occurred in the past years. This of course is ignoring the most recent trend data and hand picking data that increases the numbers. This will of course impact Novato significantly, as the larger the overall starting number for Marin the larger the proportional share for Novato.

ABAG allocation of affordable housing from these absurd exaggerated growth projects does not look at the resulting fiscal impact for the cities, the schools and all other services in Marin. If ABAG does not revisit these skewed projects I believe it is time for Marin County, and Novato, to exit ABAG, with their flawed formulas based on "one size fits all", and take control of our own local and county needs.